پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 31 (زمستان 1387)

This article aims to investigate the impacts of trade liberalization on export and import of industrial commodities through estimating of substitution elasticity of industrial commodities, in terms of two digits codes, in global markets; and also estimating of trade liberalization impact on export and import of industrial commodities using dummy variable. Our estimations show that average tariff dose not effect export; the relationship between per capita capital and export is negative; elasticity of export to liberalization is 1.36 and elasticity of export to real exchnge rete is less than unit. Substitution elasticities all, except code of 37, are less than unit. Codes of 32, 37, 31, 36 and 35 have the highest export, and code of 33 has the least export. On the side of import, the estimations are as follow: trade liberalization has negative impact on import and results of substitution elasticites are mixed. In codes of 34, 31, 32 and 35 the estimated elasticities are not significant. In codes of 38, 36, 33 and 39 the substitution elasticity is negative and in code of 37 is positive. In general, the impact of trade liberalization on export is more than import sector. The results show that this policy has positive impact on productivity and at the same time there is a negative relationship between capital accumulation and export; and a positive relationship between capital accumulation and import. This means Iran according to Hecher- Ohlin theory has advantage in labor intensive commodities.

The main objective of this research is to settle the fundamental challenges in financial sector, that is to say, "liberalization of Interest Rate". In effect, the main question of research is "How can the liberalization of interest rate on macro economic variables in the course of research be evaluated? To this end, the literature of the issue of research will be initially reviewed such as: Maxwell, Gupta, Rubini & Martin, Warman & Tirlwall, Westhead & Storey, Then the research model in question will be elaborated and its basic theory will be briefly presented. The effect of interest rate on macro economic variables with the emphasis on the theoretical aspects interest rate can be calculated on the basis of Fisher identity, systematic model using three stage least square (3SLS). In the simultaneous equations system, money demand function, investment and growth have been estimated and with approve of Mckinon-Show theory in Iran, the positive effect of financial liberalization on investment and economic growth has been determined.

In this paper, first, financial markets have been analyzed and then financial institutions in economy, in addition to industrial and mineral investments in developed and developing countries, specially Iran, have been compared. Using estimation method 3SLS, the selected model has been estimated. The model consists of a trilogy, the variable functions of which are private investment in the industry and mine sector, public investment in industry and mine sector and the amount of liquidity. Balance of bank credits to the none governmental sector, risk index, bank's credit rates, real exchange rate, inflation rate, domestic national product and governments indebtedness to commercial and specialized banks being the independent variables. According to the results of the research, the bank's interest rate creates no sensitivity in the investment of the private sector in industry and mine in Iran; but the balance of the banking credit to the none governmental sector in industry and mining sector has had a positive effect on the private investment in industry and mine.

The allocation of subsidies payment has been mentioned in both articles 46 and 47 of the Third Socio-Economic, and Cultural Development Plan. The global oil price fluctuations and their direct impacts on the Iranian national budget allocations has resulted in energy subsidies payment to be one of the most challenging issues in the Iran’s economy. The objective of this research is the assessment of inflationary impacts of energy subsidy removal by using an energy input-output price model. The findings indicate that the costs of production in the different economic sectors will rise following energy prices increase. The inflationary impacts in non-metallic mineral products, forestry, and petroleum products will be the highest while the electricity price increase has dominant role in price inflation. The significant changes will happen in the macroeconomic variables such as private consumption expenditures, government consumption expenditures, gross fixed capital formation, as well as exports.

In this research we are to investigate the existence of relationship between refined economic value added and usual measurements of performance such as earnings per share and price to earning ratio. The results show that there is no significant relation between refined economic value added and the dependent variables. Although the existence of mentioned correlation has not proved but it does not mean that there is no relation between variables. The percent of correlation coefficients and calculated R-squared show that there is a weak relation between refined economic value added and usual measurements of performance such as earning per share and price to earning ratio. Nevertheless the relation is more significant for price to earning ratio than earning per share.

By studying the efficient market theory, the new financial management has confirmed the existence of calendar anomalies such as daily transaction effect, special monthly effect, holiday effect, etc as well as non calendar anomalies like initial public offering stock effect, neglected firm stock effect, political cycle effect, etc and acknowledges them as anomalies of the efficient market theory. In fact, the recognition and existence or non existence tests of these anomalies is a new subject within the investment arena in recent years and several studies have been carried out in this regard by using different experiments specially time series and regression model with dummy variables, which are much observable in developed as well as emerging markets. By scrutinizing calendar and non calendar effects as well as full description of the efficient market theory anomalies, a sample of these effects known as “The effect of special months on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) is studied and the produced results of the study is used to test the efficiency of TSE.

We developed three Logit models for estimating the rating of prediction of bankruptcy for listed firms in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). The first phase of study examines the existence of any significance statistical differences between the financial statement data of successful and unsuccessful firms, if there will be any significant association between financial ratios and probability of bankruptcy, we want to see which ratios have a greater association with probability of bankruptcy. There are some significant differences between the two groups, from the financial activity indexes, liabilities position (financial leverage) points of view. However, the differences for liquidity not passed the test of significance. In this study we developed the Logit model with a Wald methodology to predict the rating of the firms with a reasonable accuracy.

Insurance industry has been changed with development ICT as well as other industries. Studies showed that; using e-insurance has created representation of more effective, direct and cheaper goods and services for insurance companies. Business competitive pressures at insurance industry and changing expectations of customers have necessitated using of IT certainly; evolution of ICT is affected on insurance industry in this century. Affection of this evolution is caused innovation on quality and quantity of services and more important effect on marketing styles and sales of insurance. Moreover very new discussion is expressed particularly in related with e-insurance. In this research, we try to rank the insurance services and products in order to electronic sale. Survey methods are used to gather the data and silver modelling is used to analyze it.

In this study we have investigated income and price elastisities of consumption and selling of household of cities in Iran in period 1353 until 1385, by using Almost Ideal Demand System and Habit Formation Linear Expenditure system. The result of study by analysis of toll aggregation current trend shows that consumption and selling tax rates in Iran, determine without allocation and distributive effects of indirect taxes and also income and price elasticity.

In this paper, we have studied the measurement and comparing productivity among corporate and private sectors in Ilam province. we have used some economic and statistic techniques for analyzing of data by making some indexes such as labor, material, energy and capital productivity in physical and valuing terms of partial and total of output. These have calculated with SPSS software. Also we have calculated P-values and, F for indexes among sectors and companies. We expressed and analyzed from cross-section data to compute indexes. The results show that there is a big difference between the productivity in economic sectors. It has been expectable consequence because economic sectors have different production functions also productivity among private and corporate has not been more different. So we can conclude that the corporate sector has been paid the same action as private sector, therefore government must pay attention to corporate sector much more than the past.